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Analysis

TSMC’s capacity crunch leaves door ajar for Intel and Samsung

21 January 2026
Paul van Gerven
Reading time: 2 minutes

Accelerating AI demand that TSMC alone can’t satisfy offers a window of opportunity for Intel and Samsung to regain market share in the leading-edge semiconductor market.

Responding to oversubscribed 3nm and 2nm production lines, TSMC has announced a substantial capital expenditure hike for 2026 and beyond. It won’t be enough to satisfy demand, even the foundry itself acknowledges. According to a report by The Information, TSMC has informed Nvidia and Broadcom that it can’t provide as much production capacity as they want.

That warning easily extends to other top-tier clients, such as AMD, Apple and Qualcomm. As these companies are forced to look elsewhere for their chipmaking needs, TSMC’s grip on leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing may loosen just enough to offer Intel and Samsung a lifeline.

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